This post was written by Jennifer Smokelin.
The crowning achievement of COP 17 is the Durban Agreement. But is it a significant step toward implementing climate change policy in the global arena or basically an "agreement to do nothing for now"? The answer is, well, both.
Optimists herald the great achievement that’s been made in COP 17, the Durban Agreement. As quoted in a press release from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change: "Countries meeting in Durban, South Africa, have delivered a breakthrough on the future of the international community’s response to climate change, whilst recognizing the urgent need to raise their collective level of ambition to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to keep the average global temperature rise below two degrees Celsius."
In the Durban agreement, countries agreed to negotiate a new climate change deal by 2015 to take force by 2020. It would assign emissions-reduction responsibilities to all major emitters, not developed countries only. The 194-party conference agreed to start negotiations on a new accord that would ensure that countries will be legally bound to carry out any pledges they make. Currently, only industrial countries have legally binding emissions targets under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the Protocol regulates only about a third of greenhouse gas emissions. These commitments expire next year, but they will be extended for at least another five years under the Durban Agreement adopted at COP 17, a key demand by developing countries seeking to preserve the only existing treaty regulating carbon emissions.
Note that China and India are not regulated under the Kyoto Protocol but have become two of the world's three biggest polluters in the 14 years since the Protocol was first approved. Under the Durban Agreement, China and India would have binding emission reduction commitments when the new protocol takes effect. By signaling their willingness to take on emissions cuts later, China and India won backing to extend the Kyoto Protocol's reductions past 2012, which will also extend the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Prices of CDM certificates have fallen by 54 percent in the past year as the weaker economy cut demand for offsets and concerns rose about the continuation of the program. China and India benefit from the CDM program because many projects are sited in those countries - and a higher certificate price benefits those projects.
From a glass half-empty perspective, the details of the big agreement don’t sound quite so definitive. No real treaty was reached. All that happened was that everyone agreed to try and reach a legal agreement by 2015. And if they do, it won’t come into effect until 2020. So not much happens for nine more years.
The hoopla surrounding the Durban Agreement is indicative of the fact that many watchers felt there was a very real prospect that nations would completely walk away from any organized commitment with regard to GHG regulation - and the fact that this did not happen in Durban is big news.
